Large-sized panel shipments decreased by 3.5% MoM to 47.88 million units in October

by WitsView on Nov.18 2009

According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) fell by 3.5% to 47.88 million units in October 2009. However, the 31.9% YoY growth indicated that the base period last year was exceptionally low due to the impact from the global financial downturn. As TV sales during China’s National Day holiday was in line with market expectations, it effectively cleared away the high inventory build-up in retail channels, and encouraged downstream customers’ early stocking-up for New Year sales and Lunar Chinese New Year sales in China during 1Q10; this buttressed TV panel demand in October. In the IT segment, however, as inventory replenishment of downstream customers had begun as early as 1Q09, the overall inventory status reached a relatively sufficient level, and after shipments peaked in 3Q09, demand for IT panels has weakened, and shipments showed slight declines in October, resulting in their price decline.

Looking at shipments of the 3 main applications – LCD TV was the only one that witnessed growth in the down cycle because its panel shipments continue to benefit from China’s National Day Holiday sales, and inched up 1.2% MoM to 15.01 million units. For notebook panels, as demand from stocking-up for Windows 7 models gradually draws to a close, its shipments fell by 1.8% MoM to 17.69 million units. Demand for LCD monitor panels remained weak, total shipments recorded the third consecutive month of decline since Aug09, down by 9.3% MoM.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Oct-09 (K units)

The aggregated area shipment in October reduced by 1.3% MoM, from 8.354 to 8.248 million square meters; however, it grew by 37.6% YoY. LCD TV panel shipments was the only application that posted growth, up by 1.6% to 5.437 million square meters; NB panel shipments slipped by 0.8% MoM to 1.025 million square meters and monitor panel shipments fell by 9.4% MoM to 1.785 million square meters.

Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in Oct-09 (K square meter)

LCD TV panels

TV sales during China’s National Day holiday effectively cleared away the high inventory build-up in its retail channels. Such impressive sales performance, coupled by demand from U.S. and Europe for Christmas season sales, further encouraged downstream customers to place orders for TV panels, leading to a total of 15.01 million units in global LCD TV panel shipments in October, up by 1.2% MoM and 61.4% YoY. Size-wise, the top 3 mainstream sizes remained the same as last month: 32"W secured its No.1 ranking with 38.3% market share; followed by 26"W and 42"W, with 11.7% and 10.4% respectively. Second, market share of 26’’ and below TV panels fell by 0.7%, with 18.5"W decreasing the most, by 0.9%. Third, ratio of 37’’ and above TV panels edged up slightly by 0.8% MoM to 37.2%. Demand for large-sized TV panels remained undiminished in October (average size of LCD TV panels increased from 33.67" in September to 33.78" in October). Although Q4 is a traditional slow season, with coming New Year sales and Chinese Lunar New Year sales, the LCD TV panel market holds a cautiously optimistic outlook in 4Q09.

Notebook Panels

After eight consecutive months of growth, NB panel shipments (including the 8.9” and above) recorded a decline of 1.8% MoM to 17.69 million units; but increased 31.9% YoY. Size-wise, the ratio of 8.9’’~11’’ is fairly consistent with that of September, up by a moderate 0.5%; among which, ratio of 10.x"W increased by 0.7% to 21.4%. 15.6"W secured the mainstream notebook position, adding slightly by 0.6% to 28.8%; this is followed by 14"W with 13.2% share. In addition, 16"W and above large-sized notebook panel shipments grew by 1.8% in October, with 17.3"W recording the most exceptional growth of 1.2%.

LCD Monitor Panels

In October, global LCD monitor panel shipments declined due to weakened end-market demand, down another 9.3% MoM to 15.16 million units; but still up by 11.6% YoY. The price of widescreen panels declined more dramatically than Square panels, resulting in lower ratio compared to square models – square model ratios added 2.1%, with 19” ratio increased the most by 1.8%. In addition, 16:10 segment continued to slide by 2.6% to 27.8%, with 19”W declining most heavily. Amid panel makers’ cautious control of their panel output, monitor panel market is expected to reach supply-demand equilibrium before that of TV or notebook, which may help to stabilize prices decline.

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Large-sized panel shipments decreased by 3.5% MoM to 47.88 million units in October

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