Large-sized panel shipments rose by 6.8% MoM to 43.35 million units in June

According to WitsView’s latest survey, global large-sized panel shipments (including the 8.9-inch and above) reached 43.35 million units in Jun09, up by 6.8% MoM and 21.9% YoY. In Q2, shipments continue to exceed historic standards month after month. The issue of upstream component shortage continued to surface, especially after the repercussion of glass shortage, causing a supply gap for Taiwanese panel makers. This turned into a warning sign of panel short supply, and led to the steady panel price increase. In terms of demand, June was a traditionally slow season, therefore, robust shipments inadvertently created a stronger than usual traditional weak seasonality; weaker than usual traditional strong seasonality market phenomenon. After inventory replenishment, the strength of future supply and demand will have to stand the test of end-market sales. As for the outlook of 2H09, the market is under low visibility again, particularly after downstream inventory was restored to a healthy level, since most makers tend to be more conservative, it could imply that panel makers may not be able to set the stage for a continual price increase.

In terms of the 3 main applications: even though the IT segment did not show any notable recovery in end-market demand, but driven by new model launch and the mass production of the new 16 by 9 model, shipments of above 8.9-inch Netbook and NB panels reached 14.33 million units, up by 6.1% compared to May09. In monitor panels, profitability improved significantly due to panel price increase. As a result, monitor panels have become the item of choice for panel makers; total shipment reached 16.91 million units, a 7.3% increase from May09, and its MoM growth has even exceeded the total shipment level. For TV panels, due to TV brand vendors stocking for 2H09, shipments reached 12.12 million units, up by 6.8% MoM, with the mainstream 32-inch and 40-inch as the driving force.

Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in June-09 (K units)

 

The aggregated area shipment advanced by 7.2% MoM to 7.09 million square meters, where all 3 main applications celebrated positive MoM and YoY growth. This growth can be credited to large sized TV panel recovery, which anchored the growth of area shipment. LCD TV, LCD monitor and NB shipment area growth were 46%、11.1% and 2.5% respectively. In terms of the aggregated area shipment of the 3 main applications, monitor panels climbed by 6.3% MoM to 2.03 million square meters; NB panels rose by 5% MoM to 819K square meters; and TV panels continued to record the largest increase among the 3 main applications since the beginning of Q2, reaching 4.25 million square meters, up by 8.1% MoM.

 

 

Table 2: TFT-LCD Panel Area Shipment in June-09 ( K square meter)

TV panel

In Jun09, TV panels grew by 6.8% MoM, and by a whopping 54.4% YoY to 12.12 million units. The analysis of shipment ratio showed that amid the economic woes, China’s electronic product subsidy program continued to stimulate the steady growth of small-sized TVs. The increasing portions are mainly derived from 2 main segments: below 26W (+3.9%) and 32W (+3.6%). However, when assessing the overall market, robust demand of TV panels in 2H09 led to rush orders, especially from mainland China. However, global TV demand cannot rely on China alone, demand increase from EU and US markets are crucial in achieving an overall demand expansion.

TV size-wise, thanks to brand vendor’s promotion of above 40W products in 2H09, the sliding shipment ratio has halted, maintaining at the same level as last month. Moreover, the battle of entry-level segments continued in 32W, as its shipment ratio rose by 1.9%, among the few that sustained steady growth.

Notebook panel

The aggregated NB panel shipments (which included the 8.9” and above) in Jun09 reached 14.33 million units, up by 6.1% MoM and 20% YoY. However, impacted by shipment ratio of Netbook and NB panel shipment, above 12.1-inch NB still slid by 7% YoY, but the successive new launches of above 12.1-inch has helped ease the YoY decline in Jun09.

Size-wise, Netbook shipment advanced steadily by 1%; even though 10.x-inch is currently a mainstream size of the shipments, 11.6-inch has great growth potential, increasing by 2.2% in ratio. In NB, older 16:10 models of above 12.1W that suffered more severe decline were 12.1W (-0.9%), 14.1W (-2%), and 15.4W (-2.7%). Additionally, impacted by higher retail price and the price increase, large sized NB shipment slid slightly, such as 17.3W, which fell by 0.8%. Meanwhile, driven by the momentum of new LED model, 15.6W shipment ratio increased most substantially by 4.1%.

Monitor panel

In Jun09, monitor panel shipments rose by 7.3% MoM to 16.91 million units, and the good news is that it witnessed a YoY increase of 6.5% for the first time, with performance above the historic level. Since the price increase of several sizes, monitor panels have gradually regained profitability, making monitor panels a segment of high gross margin. But Taiwanese panel makers are still constrained by glass shortage, which limited their total output. Therefore, the adjustment of the output mix involved stronger emphasis on the sale of monitor panels.

Size-wise, due to exceedingly high price increase, brand vendors tend to strategically opt for the lower-priced items to avoid the impact of total shipment. Therefore, shipment ratios of smaller sized monitors have significantly increased: 15.6W, 18.5W, 19, and 20W were up by 1.1%, 3%, 1.5%, and 2% respectively. Among those, the 18.5W showed outstanding growth as it was stimulated by high gross margin and its convertibility as small-sized TV. In contrast, above 22W shipment ratio reduced by 1.2%.


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