Explosive Inflationary Pressure and Slumping Consumer Demand, Global TV Shipments Fight to Hold at 200 Million Units in 2022, Says Trendforce
According to TrendForce research, global TV shipments in 2H22 reached 45.17 million units, falling 5% QoQ and 6.8% YoY. This was the first time shipments fell below a record low of 46 million units in the second quarter. The economies of Europe and the United States have been hit by rising inflation and interest rate hikes. In addition, China has been affected by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and has repeatedly implemented measures such as lockdowns and a dynamic zero-COVID policy. These three major TV sales regions are facing different facet of economic issues, seriously affecting overall shipments and sales. TV shipments from Samsung and LG, mainly sold in Europe and the United States, were revised downward by nearly 30% in 2Q22 and, with a combined market share of nearly 32%, this development sent shockwaves through on the market.
TrendForce further indicates, as the world was enveloped by inflation this year, global TV shipments reached 92.72 million units in 1H22, a decrease of 5.8% YoY. Under the sustained influence of inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, shrinking consumer budgets mean TV sales have missed forecasts, causing inventory levels to rise. It has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no peak in the 2H22 peak season for TV shipments. Therefore, TrendForce once again revises this year’s TV shipments down to 202 million units, a decrease of 3.8% YoY. Although TV brands are actively creating new promotion opportunities, if results are not as expected, continued risk of annual shipment volume being downgraded to below 200 million units cannot be rule out.
Shipments from international brands fail to meet expectations, Hisense leaps into second place for LCD TVs
Both TV panel prices and shipping costs have fallen significantly this year, helping brands increase promotions in terminal markets. However, rising inflation in Europe and the United States has caused a sustained rise in terminal inventory, so destocking has become TV brands’ primary goal this year. The two major TV brands Samsung and LG are primarily sold in North America and Europe and have borne the brunt of market forces since they account for nearly 50% of shipments. Samsung will face a battle to hold its shipments at 38 million units this year, a decrease of 8% YoY. Although LG maintained marginal growth in OLED TV shipments, due to the rapid decline in demand for LCD TVs, annual shipments could not escape contraction, reaching 25.74 million units, a decrease of 11.6% YoY, and dropping LG’s LCD TV shipments to fourth place for the first time.
Hisense’s sub-brand Vidda focuses on cost-effective products and has successfully gained favor with young and frugal bourgeoisie in the Chinese market. Hisense’s shipments this year are estimated to reach 22.76 million units, an annual increase of 4.3%. Not only is Hisense the only brand to grow among the five major brands, it has for the first time, simultaneously taken second place in LCD TV shipments. TCL has actively cultivated overseas markets in recent years and, currently, its proportion of export sales has reached 75%. However, sluggish demand in Europe and the United States has indirectly affected TCL’s shipments to a tune of 21.8 million units this year, a decrease of 3.6% YoY. Although Xiaomi’s domestic market share is being gradually eroded by Vidda, the company is fortunate that demand in the Indian market has recovered this year, acting as a backstop for this year’s shipments to remain flat, reaching 13.06 million units.
OLED TV market squeezed by falling LCD TV panel pricing, 2022 growth rate to contract to 7.8%
Terminal TV sales were weak this year but panel manufacturers continue to invest in new production capacity, resulting in an expansion of the supply/demand glut ratio of TV panels and whole devices to 35%, the most severe oversupply in the past five years. As a result, the price of LCD TV panels has been in a sustained decline since 2H21. This year’s decline has caused LCD TV prices to not only fall below the lows of 2019, but also blow through cash costs. TrendForce forecasts LCD TV shipments at approximately 195 million units this year, down 4.1% YoY.
On the other hand, LG Display, a major supplier of OLED TVs, maintained its quotations through product specification upgrades this year but the price gap between OLED and LCD TV panels continued to widen. In terms of the price of 55-inch UHD panels, the price differential between the two has expanded from a multiple of 1.8 to 4.8 this year, which not only caused Samsung to delay its 2022 mass production schedule, but also lead to the annual growth rate of OLED TVs contracting to single digits at 7.8% and 7.23 million units. LG has a market share of 58% in OLED TVs and SONY maintains a 20% share. Ultimately, Samsung delayed the launch of its white OLED TVs for a year. With only QD OLEDs acting as a backstop this year, the company’s market share reached 6%.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
With the experiences in customer service and business divisions of panel makers, Iris Hu was directly involved in business development and the application of new products. Benefitting from the solid knowledge and detailed information on demand and supply, panel prices, and new products, she provides profound analysis on panel capacity changes and product strategies.